You know how I’m always looking for business lessons in everything? Well, I recently stumbled on a story from WWII that gave me some insights that I’ll like to share with you in this blog post. You’re welcome.
The year was 1943, and the U.S. military had a serious problem: too many planes were getting shot down so to protect their crews, analysts did what seemed obvious and smart. They studied the planes that came back, marked every bullet hole and planned to reinforce the areas that showed the most damage. On paper, it made perfect sense: hit spots = weak spots, so strengthen them and your planes get stronger.
But Abraham Wald, a statistician on the team saw something nobody else did.
“You’re looking at the planes that made it home which means the damage you see is survivable. Reinforce the areas where there are no holes because those are the hits that proved fatal. The planes that got hit there never made it back.”
That observation pointed out that the bullet holes weren’t only showing where the planes were weak but where they could take a hit and still fly home. The parts with no damage where the more dangerous parts where planes didn’t make it back at all. Those were the real danger zones because that’s where a hit meant certain loss. (The concept of survivorship bias in statistics was birthed from this observation).
How Survivorship Bias Affects Businesses
In business, we often pour time, money, and energy into the “bullet holes” we can see:
- The loudest customer complaints
- The most visible performance metrics
- The bottlenecks everyone talks about
But what about the silent killers?
- Churned customers who never give feedback
- Leads who never make it to a sales demo
- Exceptional hires who leave before day one
- Opportunities lost that never make it to your dashboard
These gaps don’t make noise but they sometimes can sink your business faster than the problems you can see.
Spotting Your Invisible Weak Points
To fight survivorship bias in your business:
- Analyze Non-Events
Look at what didn’t happen. Prospects who didn’t convert, customers who didn’t renew, projects that never got started. - Seek Silent Feedback
Send exit surveys, analyze CRM drop-offs, and ask “Why not?” as often as you ask “Why?” - Track Hidden Metrics
Don’t only celebrate conversions; track the people who fell out of your funnel and find patterns. - Challenge Assumptions
If a process seems to be “working fine,” ask what success would look like if you included all the unseen failures.
Don’t just fix the bullet holes you can see. Reinforce the places where your business might be bleeding invisibly.
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Disclaimer: War brings immeasurable loss and suffering. The story referenced is purely for its insight, not to glorify conflict. As Japan marks 80 years since the Hiroshima & Nagasaki bombing, let us remember the lives lost, honor the resilience of survivors, and reaffirm our collective commitment to peace in our nations.
